This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth’s surface in the period of climatology, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (σ) warmer than climatology. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. “Climate dice”, describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively “loaded” in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. What’s more, we would also increase the likelihood of extreme cold spells! The effect was profound when we only increased the standard deviation by a factor of 1.1 - what if it increases by a factor of 1.2 or even more? The increased likelihood of extreme heat would be astounding. But if, in addition, global warming increases the variance of regional temperatures, then we increase the likelihood of extreme heat waves by a lot. If we increase the mean temperature (and we already have), of course we increase the likelihood of extreme heat waves (and we already have). Let’s take a look at how this might affect a different probability function, the normal distribution(the familiar “bell curve”).Īnd this illustrates one of the greatest potential dangers of global warming. When we change either the mean value or the variance of a distribution, then relatively speaking the most profound changes in the probability are likely to occur in the tails of the distribution, i.e., for the extreme events. That’s a random result of rolling the dice … or if you prefer, a random result of natural variations in weather. Although climate determines the average result and how much variation we can expect, it doesn’t by itself determine the actual result. This fits the definition of actual climate, which is the mean and variability of weather over long time spans over large areas. It also determines how much you can expect your result to vary. The way the faces of the dice are numbered, with the six faces having the numbers 1 through 6, let’s call thatclimate.Ĭlimate (the labels on the dice) determines what you expect to get. In any case, let’s call the result you get weather. We could even roll three, or four, or as many as the game requires (Yahtzee, anyone?). It’s not uncommon in many games (craps, for instance) to roll two dice and add their numbers to compute the result. When you roll the die, you get an essentially random result between 1 and 6. The idea of ‘loaded dice’ is described in Tamino’s post Craps:Īn ordinary die has six faces, with a single spot on one face, two spots on another, etc. The paper is getting pretty big play in the MSM, notably this article by Paul Krugman entitled Loading the Climate Dice. We discussed this paper Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice in a previous thread. We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were “caused” by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming. If you roll a 1, just roll again - cause it's impossible to get a 1 with two dice.“Climate dice”, describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively “loaded” in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. If you roll a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10, you don't win or lose, but must allow the other players to roll before coming back to your turn. If you roll a 2, 3 or 12, you automatically lose - you sit out until someone else wins (or if it's two players, you lose and the other wins.) If you roll a 7 or 11, you automatically win - no need for other people to roll. Standard bet is five minas or an equivalent item if you're penniless.Įach player has two dice (or they can share a pair of dice), this is represented by the number 12, for the amount of faces on each dice combined. Normal craps requires a lot of rolling from each player and tends to spam the chat, so this simplified version I call "Cretzer Craps" should do the trick for a fun and simple way to win or lose your vote money on gambling. It's also featured in The Road to El-Dorado, where the main characters use loaded dice to continually roll sevens. This is lore for my variation of craps, a simple dice game for two or more players that requires two dice to play.Ĭraps is that dice game you see a lot in movies - where they do that cliche thing with the dice by making the hot chick blow on the dude's hand before he rolls.
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